To download data export for all scenario documented here, go to the Data Summary and Download section.

Scenario Results

Scenario 1: No Social Distancing

Figure 1a: Infections over time for no social distancing


Figure 1b: Cumulative infections over time for no social distancing


Scenario 2: Medium-scale Social Distancing

Example calculation of contact factor \(f\) for meidum-scale social distancing

hh=0.25; school=0.25*0.4; work=0.75*0.4; community=0.35; # portion contacts 
f = hh*1 + school*0.9 + work*0.65 + community*0.75
f
## [1] 0.7975

Figure 2a: Infections over time for medium social distancing


Figure 2b: Cumulative infections over time for medium social distancing


Scenario 3: Strong Broad Social Distancing

Example calculation of contact factor \(f\) for high-level social distancing

hh=0.25; school=0.25*0.4; work=0.75*0.4; community=0.35; # portion contacts 
f = hh*1.45 + school*0.1 + work*0.35 + community*0.35
f
## [1] 0.6

Figure 3a: Infections over time for high-level social distancing


Figure 3b: Cumulative infections over time for high-level social distancing


Comparisons and the early phase

Here we show three social distancing scenarios on the same plot for comparison, and we show the early rise. In most of the above plots, it looks like there are no cases in the first few months, but this is misleading. It’s not that there are no cases, it’s just that the numbers grow so high later that we can’t see the rises in the early phase unless we zoom in on that time period.

Scenario 4.1: Strong Broad Social distancing limited to 200 days

Figure 4.1a: Infections over time for 200 days of high-level social distancing


Figure 4.1b: Cumulative infections over time for 200 days of high-level social distancing


Scenario 4.2: Strong Broad Social distancing limited to 100 days

Figure 4.2a: Infections over time for 100 days of high-level social distancing


Figure 4.2b: Cumulative infections over time for 100 days of high-level social distancing


Scenario 5c1: Slow 45-day social distancing

Figure 5c1a: Infections over time in the first 80 days for slow 45-day social distancing


Figure 5c1b: Infections over time for slow 45-day social distancing in the longer term


Figure 5c1c: Cumulative infections over time for slow 45-day social distancing in the longer term


Scenario 5c2: Slow then very strong social distancing

Note: this scenario results in a peak of around 1,100 infections.

Figure 5c2a: Infections over time for slow then very strong social distancing in the first 80 days


Figure 5c2b: Infections over time for slow then very strong social distancing in the longer term


Figure 5c2c: Cumulative infections over time for slow then very strong social distancing in the longer term


Note: Scenario 5 “Planking” the curve or “supression” options have been excluded as they produce uncertain or unrealistic results. Scenario 6 on smaller population is excluded. To see these scenarios, go to the main model page.

Data Summary and Download

Summary of Assumptions and Results

Scenario Assumption When Infection Peaks When Infection Stops*
Scenario 1: No Social Distancing • Factor of contact is f=1.0
• Social distancing measures are lifted only when infection stops or reaches population saturation
• COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number (R0) has mean 2.5 and sd 0.25
• Start date of infection is 12-03-2020
• Population of 2.4 Million People		 2020-05 2020-09
Scenario 2: Medium-scale Social Distancing • Factor of contact is f≈0.80
• Contacts break down: 25% household, 40% school/work, and 35% broader community
• Reduced contact due to preventative measure: school by 10%, work by 35%, community by 25%, household no change
• Social distancing measures are lifted only when infection stops or reaches population saturation
• COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number (R0) follows a normal distribution with mean 2.5 and sd 0.25
• Start date of infection is 12-03-2020
• Population of 2.4 Million People		 2020-07 2020-12
Scenario 3: Strong Broad Social Distancing • Factor of contact is f≈0.6
• Contacts break down: 25% household, 40% school/work, and 35% broader community
• Reduced contact due to preventative measure: school by 90%, work by 65%, community by 65%, household no change
• Social distancing measures are lifted only when infection stops or reaches population saturation
• COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number (R0) follows a normal distribution with mean 2.5 and sd 0.25
• Start date of infection is 12-03-2020
• Population of 2.4 Million People		 2020-08 2021-04
Scenario 4.1: Strong Broad Social distancing limited to 200 days • Factor of contact is f≈0.6
• Contacts break down: 25% household, 40% school/work, and 35% broader community
• Reduced contact due to preventative measure: school by 90%, work by 65%, community by 65%, household no change
• Social distancing measures are lifted after 200 days
• COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number (R0) follows a normal distribution with mean 2.5 and sd 0.25
• Start date of infection is 12-03-2020
• Population of 2.4 Million People		 2020-08 2021-04
Scenario 4.2: Strong Broad Social distancing limited to 100 days • Factor of contact is f≈0.6
• Contacts break down: 25% household, 40% school/work, and 35% broader community
• Reduced contact due to preventative measure: school by 90%, work by 65%, community by 65%, household no change
• Social distancing measures are lifted after 100 days
• COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number (R0) follows a normal distribution with mean 2.5 and sd 0.25
• Start date of infection is 12-03-2020
• Population of 2.4 Million People		 2020-07 2020-11
Scenario 5c1: Slow 45-day social distancing • Do nothing for the first 15 days
• Then implements very strong social distancing slowly, factor of contact decreases from f=1.0 to f=0.4 over 1 week
• Social distancing measures lifted at day 60 (45 days of social distancing)
• COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number (R0) follows a normal distribution with mean 2.5 and sd 0.25
• Start date of infection is 12-03-2020
• Population of 2.4 Million People		 2020-08 2021-01
Scenario 5c2: Slow then very strong social distancing✝ • Do nothing for the first 15 days
• Then implements very strong social distancing slowly, factor of contact decreases from f=1.0 to f=0.4 over 1 week
• Social distancing measures are lifted only when infection stops or reaches population saturation
• COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number (R0) follows a normal distribution with mean 2.5 and sd 0.25
• Start date of infection is 12-03-2020
• Population of 2.4 Million People		 2020-03 2020-06

*Infection considered stopped when monthly infection falls below 100.
✝Scenario 5c2 is a outbreak prevented scenario where infection never reaches population saturation.

Figure 6: Cumulative infections over time for all scenarios (excl. scen5c2_slHiSocDist)


Download Daily Data

Download data export of cumulative infection by day for all scenarios: covid19_all_scen_daily.xlsx

Download Summary Data

Download data export of cumulative and new infection by month for all scenarios: covid19_all_scen_monthly.xlsx